1. Looking at the indicators of climate change.

Explain to the students that in Part 1 of the MEECS unit on climate change, they investigated several different kinds of evidence for climate change. In Part 2, they will explore some effects of climate change. The focus will be especially on the kinds of change that could have the most impact on the Michigan economy and the lifestyles of Michigan residents. (Slides 1-2)

Have students brainstorm about what impacts are associated with the model projections that indicate an increase in temperature. What are some indicators of a warming world? (e.g., decline in glacier ice).

The Environmental Conditions: Describing Trends and Hypotheses (student activity set) includes a number of graphs that show trends in environmental conditions (indicators) over the past 50 years. For each graph, students will first describe the trend (the change through time). Students should try to use language that a “nonscientist” citizen could understand. Then write a sentence that identifies the specific forces or changes that might cause the trend observed on the graph.

Complete page 1 together to introduce the activity (Slides 3-5):

Slides 4-5: Carbon Dioxide Concentration in Air

• Describe the trend on this graph: (Every year the air has more CO2 in it. It keeps increasing faster – it went up only 10ppm in the 1960s but more than 20 between 2000 and 2010.)

• What do you think is the direct cause of the changes you describe? (People are burning more coal and oil, releasing more carbon dioxide into the air)

Slides 6-7: mid-level Air Temperature

• Describe the trend on this graph: (Very erratic, but the general trend is a higher temperature overall)

• What do you think is the direct cause of the changes you describe? (The higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has prevented outgoing radiation, causing the temperature to rise)

Teacher note: Besides the introductory page, there are six pages of graphs, some with sample answers. They cover environmental trends including ocean temperature, heat, cold, seasonality, extremes, carbon dioxide levels and glaciers. Each graph is also represented on a PPT slide (Slides 8-25); teachers may choose to do some as a class and assign others. Use as needed to be sure students can not only interpret the graphs, but can identify causes for the change.

2. Michigan and the Great Lakes

Through this lesson, students should gain fuller understanding of what climate change means for Michigan. The GLISA Climate Change in the Great Lakes video narrated by Dr. Don Scavia (from the University of Michigan Great Lakes Integrated Science and Assessments) summarizes the projections and impacts for this region. The video, a script document, and a time sequence outline can be found on the MEECS Climate Change Resource DVD, or access the video at http://sustainability.umich.edu/multimedia/climate-change-great-lakesdon-scavia. This is based on the GLISA report, Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region, which can be found on the MEECS Climate Change Resource DVD.

The video can be broken into segments with the following discussion questions: (Slides 26-29)

1) How has the global and regional climate changed? (0:00 to 7:51)

a. What are the three aspects of temperature and precipitation that scientists study? (average, extremes, seasonality)

b. What do records show about temperature and precipitation? (Temperature is rising; increase in intense storms; precipitation is changing seasonally)

c. Summary of existing trends: 7:14

2) What are the projected global and regional changes? (7:51- 16:20)

a. What is the projected temperature change? (warmer in this region by up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit)

b. How will precipitation change? (rainfall in winter, spring and fall will increase; rainfall in summer will decrease, causing drier soils and more droughts)

c. Summary: 15:26

3) What are the expected regional impacts?

(16:20-30:55)

a. What did the video say about the number of days of snow in Michigan? (decrease from about 50/year to as little as 20/year)

b. What about water levels of the Great Lakes? (The models give different results – the levels will change, may increase or decrease)

c. What are some of the impacts Dr. Scavia mentioned? (fish, water quality, forests, land use, public health, birds, tourism)

d. Are we preparing? 30:55

Students should choose one of the following and write a paragraph explaining their answer (Slide 30):

1) What might be some consequences of fewer days of snow in Michigan?

2) What are some consequences of either a rise in lake levels or a drop in lake levels?

3) Explain Dr. Scavia’s summary sentence: “We have to double down our efforts to try to delay and decrease the amount of climate change in the future, but at the same time we need to prepare for that inevitable change that we are going to be seeing.”

3. Tying it all together.

Discuss Potential Climate Change Impacts transparency master (Slide 31). Ask students to discuss examples listed under each impact that they may have heard or read about. Which of these impacts might happen in Michigan?

Students will then evaluate the impact of the indicators on Michigan using the Climate Indicators for Michigan student activity.